Superb historical background. Informative and with a cogent, clear-eyed analysis of the situation.
The one thing we wonder about is whether, under the circumstances as they exist at the moment, the regime would even agree to return to the conditions of the JCPOA. The argument might be that the terms of that agreement were negotiated before they were attacked by a nuclear-armed superpower, which only bolsters the need not to limit enrichment to the terms of the JCPOA.
The U.S. provided Iraq with precursors for chemical weapons during the Iraq-Iran war.
Iran is a signatory to the NPT; Israel is not.
U.S. IC has assessed since 2003 that Iran has no nuclear weapons program.
In modern times, Iran has never attacked or invaded another country unless responding to an attack. Israel has attacked all its neighbors. The U.S. is not much better.
The U.S. and Europe didn’t uphold their obligations under the JCPOA.
The Iranian government was overthrown by the CIA in 1953(?).
I believe that the nuclear issue is a red herring. It’s just a good excuse for the Zionist’s to further the Greater Israel project by ruining Iran.
Fatwa's come and go. There is clear evidence of Iran's historical pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities and there is not a serious alternative explanation for their enrichment program (Russia provides fuel for Bushehr) beyond nuclear latency. North Korea also signed the NPT (and later withdrew). The article acknowledges that the AMAD plan was put on ice in 2003 and the US unilateral withdrawal from JCPOA. No dispute about US and Israeli aggression in the ME.
The article mentions sanctions several times as if they are directly connected to the nuclear program. As if a sufficiently convincing nuclear agreement would eliminate all sanctions imposed on Iran. This is obviously not the case in any currently foreseeable future.
Edit: I didn't make it clear that my concern was including sanctions in calculating the cost of the Iran's nuclear program. Certainly Iran doesn't see it that way. The nuclear advocates never fail to mention that it can be used as leverage to *end* the sanctions that exist with or without the program. Perhaps the only leverage available.
It also mentions Gulf state pipeline projects as a meaningful alternative to the current blocked exports. It would take years to build such pipelines over the distances involved through multiple jurisdictions that can easily change their mind about whether they want keep all their crude eggs in an Israeli basket since that is where said pipelines must go. Not to mention it is one hell of a lot easier to hit a pipeline with drones or missiles than a moving ship. Of course, they would be a setup for sabotage anywhere along the pipelines.
The nuclear issue is a red herring but not in a sense you present it here. Every nuclear power in the world build a plutonium device. Iranians are building the uranium one. Those eggheads are having ayatollahs for fools and deservedly so.
South Africa build a number of weapons using highly enriched uranium.
"South Africa developed a small finite deterrence arsenal of gun-type fission weapons in the 1980s. Six were constructed and another was under construction at the time the program ended.
As the final production model contained a relatively large amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU), much effort was expended to ensure the physical safety of the nuclear warheads, with Armscor technicians creating many safety features."
"First, the "Little Boy" weapon which was detonated over Hiroshima and several additional units of the same design prepared after World War II, in 40 Mark 8 bombs, and their replacement, 40 Mark 11 bombs. Both the Mark 8 and Mark 11 designs were intended for use as earth-penetrating bombs, for which the gun-type method was preferred for a time by designers who were less than certain that early implosion-type weapons would successfully detonate following an impact. The second program was a family of 11-inch (280 mm) nuclear artillery shells, the W9 and its derivative W19, plus a repackaged W19 in a 16-inch (406 mm) shell for US Navy battleships, the W23. The third family was an 8-inch (203 mm) artillery shell, the W33."
"All known gun-type fission weapons have used highly enriched uranium (HEU). The high spontaneous fission rates of plutonium isotopes make it very impractical for use in gun-type designs, as in the abandoned Thin Man design."
China started with highly enriched uranium. First Chinese nuclear test was Project 596, implosion fission device containing about 15 kg weapons-grade uranium (U-235).
US started with both highly enriched uranium and plutonium technology. US build few dozen HEU bombs and many thousands of plutonium bombs.
The point is: that you can have few working HEU bombs and later when you build plutonium production reactors you can produce much more cheaper smaller plutonium weapons.
You don't need to achieve weapon-grade enrichment to "graduate" to plutonium. You just need a breeder reactor. It is very likely the eggheads are just stalling intentionally.
Griping about nuclear proliferation now has become a joke, the Western empire oligarchs have made a mockery of the entire effort.
Doing their damnedest to provoke Russia to attack Europe/UK, possibly with nuclear weapons. Even if they don't use nukes, article five of the NATO treaty demands that it will respond in force against that, which is highly probable will lead to nuclear conflict. War games that model the use of tactical nuclear weapons between superpowers inevitably lead to a full nuclear exchange.
NATO/EU/UK/USA even attacking Russian strategic bombers and strategic missile defense radars through their Ukraine proxy. That alone justifies a nuclear response under current protocols.
They won't negotiate. They had a peace treaty agreed upon and the oligarchy demanded Ukraine renege on it. Attacking Russia's energy & civilian infrastructure, leaving Russian politicians and citizens fuming in outrage. We have to thank god for Putin having a cool head and seems to be playing the long game, but he is under extreme pressure to respond against European nations with force.
There's zero doubt the oligarchy is trying to provoke Russia so they can respond in force, playing nuclear chicken. A typical stunt, just as they did 9/11, in order to justify their "seven countries in five years....ending with Iran" plan. And using Ukrainians as chumps, destroying their own country, killing off their youth, so the oligarchy can achieve their goal of dismantling Russia into a collection of fiefdoms. They tried to do the same with the Georgians but they saw through their plan and wisely refused to play ball.
And Trump keeps threatening a nuclear response against Iran. Start a nuclear war to prevent the possibility of Iran building nuclear weapons like Israel has. And Pakistan. And quite likely trigger a kinetic response from China and/or Russia. Yep, that makes sense.
Speaking of WMDs, they still are doing zip about bioweapons, like the SARS-CoV-2 virus that was bioengineered by US companies. GOF Frankenstein experiments are continuing, guilty parties are never punished. Makes nuclear proliferation a minor concern in comparison.
Superb historical background. Informative and with a cogent, clear-eyed analysis of the situation.
The one thing we wonder about is whether, under the circumstances as they exist at the moment, the regime would even agree to return to the conditions of the JCPOA. The argument might be that the terms of that agreement were negotiated before they were attacked by a nuclear-armed superpower, which only bolsters the need not to limit enrichment to the terms of the JCPOA.
This is a fantastic post, Doc.
This account omits significant facts:
The Fatwa prohibiting development of WMDs.
The U.S. provided Iraq with precursors for chemical weapons during the Iraq-Iran war.
Iran is a signatory to the NPT; Israel is not.
U.S. IC has assessed since 2003 that Iran has no nuclear weapons program.
In modern times, Iran has never attacked or invaded another country unless responding to an attack. Israel has attacked all its neighbors. The U.S. is not much better.
The U.S. and Europe didn’t uphold their obligations under the JCPOA.
The Iranian government was overthrown by the CIA in 1953(?).
I believe that the nuclear issue is a red herring. It’s just a good excuse for the Zionist’s to further the Greater Israel project by ruining Iran.
Fatwa's come and go. There is clear evidence of Iran's historical pursuit of nuclear weapon capabilities and there is not a serious alternative explanation for their enrichment program (Russia provides fuel for Bushehr) beyond nuclear latency. North Korea also signed the NPT (and later withdrew). The article acknowledges that the AMAD plan was put on ice in 2003 and the US unilateral withdrawal from JCPOA. No dispute about US and Israeli aggression in the ME.
A couple of minor points.
The article mentions sanctions several times as if they are directly connected to the nuclear program. As if a sufficiently convincing nuclear agreement would eliminate all sanctions imposed on Iran. This is obviously not the case in any currently foreseeable future.
Edit: I didn't make it clear that my concern was including sanctions in calculating the cost of the Iran's nuclear program. Certainly Iran doesn't see it that way. The nuclear advocates never fail to mention that it can be used as leverage to *end* the sanctions that exist with or without the program. Perhaps the only leverage available.
It also mentions Gulf state pipeline projects as a meaningful alternative to the current blocked exports. It would take years to build such pipelines over the distances involved through multiple jurisdictions that can easily change their mind about whether they want keep all their crude eggs in an Israeli basket since that is where said pipelines must go. Not to mention it is one hell of a lot easier to hit a pipeline with drones or missiles than a moving ship. Of course, they would be a setup for sabotage anywhere along the pipelines.
The nuclear issue is a red herring but not in a sense you present it here. Every nuclear power in the world build a plutonium device. Iranians are building the uranium one. Those eggheads are having ayatollahs for fools and deservedly so.
South Africa build a number of weapons using highly enriched uranium.
"South Africa developed a small finite deterrence arsenal of gun-type fission weapons in the 1980s. Six were constructed and another was under construction at the time the program ended.
As the final production model contained a relatively large amount of highly enriched uranium (HEU), much effort was expended to ensure the physical safety of the nuclear warheads, with Armscor technicians creating many safety features."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Weapons_grade_uranium_stores
US programs:
"First, the "Little Boy" weapon which was detonated over Hiroshima and several additional units of the same design prepared after World War II, in 40 Mark 8 bombs, and their replacement, 40 Mark 11 bombs. Both the Mark 8 and Mark 11 designs were intended for use as earth-penetrating bombs, for which the gun-type method was preferred for a time by designers who were less than certain that early implosion-type weapons would successfully detonate following an impact. The second program was a family of 11-inch (280 mm) nuclear artillery shells, the W9 and its derivative W19, plus a repackaged W19 in a 16-inch (406 mm) shell for US Navy battleships, the W23. The third family was an 8-inch (203 mm) artillery shell, the W33."
"All known gun-type fission weapons have used highly enriched uranium (HEU). The high spontaneous fission rates of plutonium isotopes make it very impractical for use in gun-type designs, as in the abandoned Thin Man design."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun-type_fission_weapon
I know it is possible to build a Uranium bomb. My point is everybody who has nukes went with Plutonium. And got theirs faster.
South Africa went with highly enriched uranium.
China started with highly enriched uranium. First Chinese nuclear test was Project 596, implosion fission device containing about 15 kg weapons-grade uranium (U-235).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_596
US started with both highly enriched uranium and plutonium technology. US build few dozen HEU bombs and many thousands of plutonium bombs.
The point is: that you can have few working HEU bombs and later when you build plutonium production reactors you can produce much more cheaper smaller plutonium weapons.
You don't need to achieve weapon-grade enrichment to "graduate" to plutonium. You just need a breeder reactor. It is very likely the eggheads are just stalling intentionally.
Griping about nuclear proliferation now has become a joke, the Western empire oligarchs have made a mockery of the entire effort.
Doing their damnedest to provoke Russia to attack Europe/UK, possibly with nuclear weapons. Even if they don't use nukes, article five of the NATO treaty demands that it will respond in force against that, which is highly probable will lead to nuclear conflict. War games that model the use of tactical nuclear weapons between superpowers inevitably lead to a full nuclear exchange.
NATO/EU/UK/USA even attacking Russian strategic bombers and strategic missile defense radars through their Ukraine proxy. That alone justifies a nuclear response under current protocols.
They won't negotiate. They had a peace treaty agreed upon and the oligarchy demanded Ukraine renege on it. Attacking Russia's energy & civilian infrastructure, leaving Russian politicians and citizens fuming in outrage. We have to thank god for Putin having a cool head and seems to be playing the long game, but he is under extreme pressure to respond against European nations with force.
There's zero doubt the oligarchy is trying to provoke Russia so they can respond in force, playing nuclear chicken. A typical stunt, just as they did 9/11, in order to justify their "seven countries in five years....ending with Iran" plan. And using Ukrainians as chumps, destroying their own country, killing off their youth, so the oligarchy can achieve their goal of dismantling Russia into a collection of fiefdoms. They tried to do the same with the Georgians but they saw through their plan and wisely refused to play ball.
And Trump keeps threatening a nuclear response against Iran. Start a nuclear war to prevent the possibility of Iran building nuclear weapons like Israel has. And Pakistan. And quite likely trigger a kinetic response from China and/or Russia. Yep, that makes sense.
US Foreign Policy Flowchart:
https://steemit.com/government/@jppagoto/u-s-foreign-policy-flow-chart
Speaking of WMDs, they still are doing zip about bioweapons, like the SARS-CoV-2 virus that was bioengineered by US companies. GOF Frankenstein experiments are continuing, guilty parties are never punished. Makes nuclear proliferation a minor concern in comparison.
Good work. There is probably even an extra pack of instant noodles for you, tovarishch.